Many of us have faced the challenge of figuring out how much time tasks will take, whether it's during Sprint Planning, drafting project proposals, or estimating delivery times for orders. A recurring issue for many teams is the tendency to consistently underestimate the amount of time a task will take, leading to the inclusion of excessive work in their sprints.
Several methods have proven effective in addressing this challenge, and one worth discussing is Lead Time. Utilizing Lead Time enables teams to make predictions based on the historical performance of the team. The lead time metric, originating from the Kanban method, essentially measures the time taken to complete a task. Depending on your field, the specific timestamps recorded may vary. For instance, a software engineering team might measure the time between deciding to work on a user story (when it enters the sprint backlog or the pulled column) and completing the user story/rolling out the feature. Conversely, an online shop might measure the time between order placement and parcel dispatch. Additionally, lead time can be applied to larger endeavours, such as determining how long it takes a team to complete an epic.
Collecting this data provides the opportunity for probabilistic forecasting based on real-world past data—a reliable method for estimating task duration. Simulations can even be performed to determine the projected duration of an entire project for your team, although this topic extends beyond the scope of this article (for more information, refer to Monte Carlo simulations). Typically, with lead time, statistical calculations are employed to determine
If you aggregate all tasks into the same category and plot the number of completed tasks against the days taken to finish them, you might observe distinct clusters. Examining these clusters may reveal different types of tasks with similar durations, allowing you to categorize tasks for more accurate predictions. This process is enhanced if you're already using a tool like Jira or Trello, as it likely already houses this valuable data.
In future posts, I will delve into how you can integrate lead time into sprint planning more effectively.